Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, told the Committee there were signs that the UK economy was growing again, implying that the recession was over, but he warned that the strength and sustainability of the recovery were still highly uncertain.
Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has also called the end of America’s recession.

01Oct

US Tyre Duties Spark Clash

Posted by admin as News

A full-blown trade row erupted between the US and China after Beijing accused Washington of “rampant protectionism” for imposing heavy duties on imported Chinese tyres and threatened action against imports of US poultry and vehicles.
Trade relations between two of the world’s biggest economies deteriorated after Barack Obama, US president, signed an order late on Friday to impose a new duty of 35% on Chinese tyre imports on top of an existing 4% tariff.
In his first big test on world trade ever since taking office in January, Mr Obama sided with America’s trade unions, which have complained that a “surge” in imports of Chinese-made tyres ad caused 7000 job losses among US factory workers.
Chen Deming, China’s minister of commerce, condemned the decision, saying that it “sends the wrong signal to the world” at a time when Washington and Beijing should be co-operating to deal with the worst economic and financial crisis in decades. China said it would now investigate imports of US poultry and vehicles, responding to complaints from domestic companies.
The US warned Beijing against taking retaliatory action. an official from the Office of the United States Trade Representative said that the retaliation would be inappropriate, as the US acted entirely within the bounds of trade laws and within the safeguard provision that China itself agreed to upon accession to the WTO. The official said that enforcing trade agreements and laws was “critical” to maintaining free markets. Another official said the US had “negotiated” to the end with the Chinese to come up with something we could all agree to.
US officials said that they were scrutinizing the export of poultry and vehicles, but said any action in reliation by China could result in a complaint by the US to the WTO.

US consumers hit the shops in August in higher-than-expected numbers, raising optimism among retailers planning for the holiday season. Economists already knew that the US government’s $3bn “cash for clunkers” scheme had boosted car sales last month, but retail sales were strong across the board.
Buyers for major department stores say privately that they are planning for a bumper holiday shopping season, and Toys “R” Us, the children’s retailer, said that it would open temporary stores at 350 locations across the US. In an unusual move for a retailer, these “pop up” stores will open in vacant properties at 80 malls or high streets, and inside its sister chain, Babies “R” Us, only to disappear again in January.
Last year’s holiday season was the worst for retailers in 40 years by some measure, and consumer surveys have not so far predicted a strong rebound this year. But some chains have reported an upturn in spending in recent weeks, particularly over the Labour Day holiday.
Best Buy, the biggest consumer electronics chain in the US, missed its profit forecast for the second quarter of the year, but raised its outlook for the rest of 2009, saying that sales trends were improving , customer traffic was stabilising and it was also winning market share due to the bankruptcy of its main rival Circuit City earlier this year.
The August figure for retail sales caught Wall Street by surprise. Economists had expe ted a 2% jump, on an annualised basis, but the commerce department said that sales in fact grew 2.7%. Car sales were up by 10.6% due to the government scrappage scheme, but there were also gains of more than 1% in electronics, general merchandise and in the hobbies sector, which includes sporting goods, books and music.

The US recession is “very likely over”, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said as data showed the last month’s retail sales rise fastest for 3 years.
Sales rose 2.7%, with the expected boost from the popular “cash for clunkers” car rebate program accompanied by a surprise pick-up in other spending. This raised hopes that US consumers might be re-emerging from the rubble of the housing market collapse, the roller-coaster ride in equities markets and rising unemployment.
“This is a consumer that is in a lasting full recovery mode,” said Chris Rupkey, at the Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ. “The Fed is going to need to stop talking about its exit strategy and start implementing it if today’s data keeps up.”
Others were more cautious, pointing out that August was the back-to-school month. “I’d like to see if this is just a one-month bounce or an actual trend,” said Adam York, at Wells Fargo.
Many economists believe that consumer spending will be constrained for months by households’ limited access to credit and their desire to reduce their debts. However, after a long period of near-stagnant spending, there may be pent-up demand for some goods.
Mr Bernanke, who did not comment directly on the sales report, remained cautious about the shape of the recovery. He said he expected a “moderate” recovery in 2010 with growth “not much faster than the underlying potential growth rate of the economy”—which means around 3%.
Car and car parts sales jumped 10.6% in August thanks to the now-defunct clunker scheme, while petrol stations’ sales also jumped 5.1% as the price of oil rose during the month.
But even excluding all auto-related purchases and petrol, retail sales were up a healthy 0.6% with higher spending on clothes, sports goods, books, electronics and food.
Meanwhile, wholesale prices rose 1.7% in August after falling 0.9% in July. The rise was greater than analysts expected, given a lot of spare capacity in the economy, and was led by an 8% rise in energy prices and a 23% jump in the cost of petrol.
“With gold at $1000 an ounce, we are concerned about the outlook for inflation later in 2010 and this report suggests that inflation pressures may be beginning to stir in manufacturing,” said John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics.

The unemployment rate rose from 9.4% in July, then to 9.7% in August, however, the economists have taken cheer from the slowing pace of job cuts. However, the US employers cut fewer jobs than had been expected. The Labor Department announced a total of 216000 job losses on the non-farm payroll measure, which is less than the the forecast figure of 225000.
The employment has fallen by 6.9m in the US ever since December 2007, weighing heavily on consumer spending and compounding the problems caused by the nation’s housing crash. According to the Labor Department, it is announced that the biggest job cuts were seen in construction, where employment declined by 65000, along with the trend ever since May.
Though the pace of job losses has slowed throughout manufacturing in recent months, manufacturing employment declined 63000. Financial activities shed 28000 jobs in August, which has continued to slow ever since the turn of 2009. Wholesale trade employment fell by 17000. Most other sectors remained broadly flat and employment in health care went on rising in August, going up by 28000.